SemiLens — Semiconductor Supply Chain Terminal

DATA

METHOD

QoQ differences - cycle co-movement | Pearson - linear association

CYCLE TIMELINE - CHANGES / PEARSON

THREE-GROUP FRAMEWORK

LEADERS (positive lag)

Variables that move before DRAM prices. These are potential early-warning signals for memory cycle turns.

COINCIDENT (zero lag)

Variables that move together with DRAM prices. These confirm current cycle position but do not predict.

FOLLOWERS (negative lag)

Variables that move after DRAM prices. These respond to memory cycle changes with a delay.

Methodology: Pearson correlations on quarter-over-quarter changes. (Pearson: measures linear association). Generated by step1_correlation.py from MU quarterly data.

BEST LEAD SUMMARY - CHANGES / PEARSONLead time to DRAM prices - Click rows to expand chart - Click headers to sort

LEAD-LAG HEATMAP - CHANGES / PEARSONLeft = leads DRAM - Right = lags DRAM - Center = coincident - Blue = positive - Red = negative

SEMILENS - Lead-Lag Correlation AnalysisMU quarterly data - step1_correlation.py