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Lead-lag of MU variables vs three memory composite targets (DRAM, NAND, Combined)

TARGET

DATA

METHOD

DRAM Composite | Changes | Pearson

CYCLE TIMELINE - DRAM COMPOSITE / CHANGES / PEARSON

THREE-GROUP FRAMEWORK

LEADERS (positive lag)

Variables that move before DRAM Composite. These are potential early-warning signals for dram composite turns.

COINCIDENT (zero lag)

Variables that move together with DRAM Composite. These confirm current position but do not predict.

FOLLOWERS (negative lag)

Variables that react to DRAM Composite movements. These respond to dram composite changes with a delay.

Methodology: Pearson correlations on quarter-over-quarter changes. (Pearson: measures linear association). Generated by step1_correlation.py from MU quarterly data.

BEST LEAD SUMMARY - DRAM COMPOSITE / CHANGES / PEARSONLead time to DRAM Composite - Click rows to expand chart - Click headers to sort

LEAD-LAG HEATMAP - DRAM COMPOSITE / CHANGES / PEARSONLeft = leads DRAM Composite - Right = lags DRAM Composite - Center = coincident - Blue = positive - Red = negative

SEMILENS - Modern Memory Correlation (2013-2026)MU quarterly data - step1_correlation.py