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L8

Optical & Interconnect

Optical components, transceivers, coherent networking, and data center interconnect. The physical layer of AI infrastructure. Split into Sub-basket A (pluggable ramp, NOW) and Sub-basket B (CPO structural shift, LATER) — these trade differently over 18-36 month horizons.

early
HYPOTHESIS

Sub-basket A correlates with NVDA/AVGO order flow and quarterly transceiver shipment data. Sub-basket B correlates with CPO qualification announcements and Nvidia Rubin platform timeline. CRDO is the explicit short: copper losing structural share to optical at scale. BREAKING: Google NPO order (Apr 2026) — 12M NPO modules for TPU v7/v8 cluster, $1.7-2.1B order. Chinese assemblers (Zhongji, Eoptolink) won module supply. US-listed beneficiaries: LITE (EML laser source), AXTI (InP substrate), AIXXF (MOCVD equipment), MTSI (components), TSEM (SiPho PICs). COHR lost this Google slot — monitor qualification progress.

CAPITAL CYCLE
Capex/Depreciation: 1.3x

Optical interconnect demand is in the early innings of a multi-year build cycle. Hyperscaler capex commitments extend through 2027. Google has placed a 12M unit NPO order for TPU v7/v8 (Q3 2026 to Q2 2027 delivery, ~12-15B CNY market size). This accelerates the Sub-basket B CPO/NPO thesis — previously forecasted 2027-2029, now pulling forward. Chinese suppliers (Zhongji 60%, Eoptolink 40%) won this initial order but US-listed suppliers (LITE, COHR, MTSI) benefit from laser component and equipment demand regardless of who assembles the final module.

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BETA SPY
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BETA SOXX
16
CONSTITUENTS
11
OPTIONS ELIGIBLE
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INTRA-LAYER CORRELATION

Single constituent — intra-layer correlation not applicable.

CONSTITUENTS
Live quotes via Tradier · Click ticker for details
TICKERCOMPANYLASTCHG%β SPYβ SOXXSIGNALSTAGS
COHR
Coherent Corp
Vertically integrated optical components and transceiver manufacturer. 800G and 1.6T transceiver ram...
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OPTIONS
opticalai_infrastructurelong
SMTC
Semtech Corporation
CTLE and signal integrity chips for high-speed optical transceivers. Irrational Analysis #4 position...
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OPTIONS
opticalai_infrastructure
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics
Small-cap optical transceiver manufacturer. 100G/400G/800G transceivers for hyperscaler data centers...
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optical
MTSI
MACOM Technology
Analog semiconductor and photonic components for optical networks. Laser driver and TIA chips used i...
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OPTIONS
opticallong
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor
SiPho PIC foundry — manufactures silicon photonics PICs used in 1.6T optical transceivers. Cross-lay...
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OPTIONS
opticalanalog_moat
LITE
Lumentum Holdings
Leading laser and optical component manufacturer. NVDA $2B+ supply commitment signals deep integrati...
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OPTIONS
opticalai_infrastructurelong+2
AXTI
AXT Inc
Manufacturer of compound semiconductor substrates — indium phosphide (InP) boules used in laser fabr...
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opticalinp_fabcpo
AIXXF
Aixtron SE
Makes MOCVD reactors — the equipment used to grow InP and GaAs epitaxial layers that become laser ch...
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opticalinp_fabcpo+1
NOK
Nokia Corporation
Via the Infinera acquisition, Nokia is the only company besides Lumentum with 6-inch InP wafer fab c...
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OPTIONS
opticalinp_fabcpo+1
CIEN
Ciena Corporation
WaveLogic coherent optical networking — the only 1.6T coherent DCI solution in production. Long thes...
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OPTIONS
opticalai_infrastructurelong
GLW
Corning
Optical fiber manufacturer. Meta $6B fiber supply deal signals demand inflection. The physical mediu...
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OPTIONS
opticalai_infrastructure
ANET
Arista Networks
Ethernet switching for AI data centers. EOS software moat makes Arista the default choice for hypers...
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OPTIONS
ai_infrastructureopticallong
CRDO
Credo Technology
Active electrical cable (AEC) and copper interconnect chipmaker. The explicit short/avoid thesis: co...
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OPTIONS
copper_displacementshort
CSCO
Cisco Systems
Enterprise networking incumbent. Included for correlation analysis — does Cisco move with AI optical...
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OPTIONS
opticalwatch
ZJGQ
Zhongji Innolight
China's largest optical transceiver manufacturer. Primary listing Shenzhen Stock Exchange (300308.SZ...
CN A-SHARENo US Data
opticalai_infrastructure
EOPT
Eoptolink Technology
Chinese optical transceiver manufacturer. Primary listing Shenzhen Stock Exchange (300502.SZ) — no U...
CN A-SHARENo US Data
opticalai_infrastructure
SEMILENS v0.1 · Data via Tradier Production API · Not financial adviceBeta research: 5Y daily · Loading...